NUCLEAR
Nuclear re-rates as AI’s base-load of last resort.
68/100 conviction▲ +2 strengtheningUpdated 8 Jul 2026
Hyperscalers need firm, 24/7, carbon-free power at scale — and the only source that clears all three is nuclear. In 2024 that moved from headline to procurement: hyperscalers signed direct deals for existing reactors, restarts, and next-generation small modular reactors (SMRs). The market still treats the sector as legacy; the demand signal says otherwise.
What’s driving it
- Microsoft–Constellation: a 20-year PPA to restart Three Mile Island Unit 1 (the Crane Clean Energy Center), announced September 2024.
- Amazon: power from Talen’s Susquehanna nuclear plant, plus an investment in X-energy’s SMR technology (October 2024).
- Google–Kairos Power: an agreement to buy power from a fleet of SMRs (October 2024). The through-line: data-centre load wants baseload, and renewables plus storage don’t yet clear 24/7 at hyperscale.
The bear case
Nuclear timelines are long and cost-overrun-prone, and SMRs are largely pre-commercial. Gas with carbon capture, or firmed renewables, could fill the gap faster, and restarts carry regulatory and relicensing risk.
What would prove us wrong: hyperscaler firm-power demand met predominantly by gas or firmed renewables through the next cycle, or SMR programmes slipping materially.
Where the exposure sits
Companies described by what they do in the affected layer — not securities we’re selecting, and nothing here is a buy or sell.
- Constellation Energy — largest US nuclear fleet; the TMI restart counterparty
- Vistra / Talen — merchant nuclear generation contracting with data centres
- SMR developers (Oklo, NuScale, X-energy) — next-gen reactors — largely pre-revenue, higher risk
Sources: Company and utility announcements, September–October 2024; US Department of Energy.